Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by only a single point in the battleground state of Wisconsin.
FabrizioWard surveyed 600 likely voters and found a 49 to 48 percent squeaker in Harris’s favor. The poll was taken entirely after the September 10 debate, between September 11 and 14, 2024, and lines up with other polls in Dairy State that show an insanely tight race.
With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot, Harris leads by three points, 48 to 45 percent. Kennedy is still appealing to be removed from the ballot after suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump.
The pollster also asked who won the September 10 debate, and Trump got shellacked, losing to Harris by 32 points, 55 to 23 percent.
“Among voters 50+, the race is extremely close, with Trump ahead by 2 points,” the pollster reports. “Within the 50+ electorate, Trump leads by 10 points with 50-64-year-olds, but Harris is up 6 points with seniors.”
“Harris leads thanks to having Democrats almost unanimously consolidated behind her, plus an 11-point advantage with independent voters.”
In 2020, we are told President Joe Biden won Wisconsin by 0.7 points. Ah, but the polls said he would win by 6.7 points.
In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.7 points. But the polls said he would lose the state to Hillary Clinton by 6.5 points.
If the 2024 polls are only half as bad as they were in 2020 and 2016, Trump is going to find himself reelected. The question is if the pollsters have figured out what went wrong in the past and fixed those mistakes.
In the swing states that will decide the election, Wisconsin isn’t the only squeaker. They are all squeakers. In the RealClearPolitics average poll of the swing state polls, Trump is +1.3 in Arizona, +0.4 in North Carolina, and +0.7 in Georgia. Harris is +0.5 in Nevada, +1.1 in Wisconsin, +1.0 in Michigan, and +0.6 in Pennsylvania.
Nationally, Harris is only up by two points, 49.3 to 47.3 percent.
Most of the betting markets are all within a point or two.
Trump seemed to be moving ahead in the polls until the debate, which he clearly lost. But Harris has not been able to capitalize much on her win. She certainly isn’t running away with it. My guess is that she’s just too much of a blank slate policy-wise. She might believe remaining a blank slate can take her over the finish line, and maybe it can. But that will require quite the juggling act for the next six weeks, along with more unforced errors from Trump, which he is certainly capable of committing (like that debate). But…
As we saw in 2016 and 2020, Trump knows how to close a presidential election.
