Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris’ Lead Hits 6-Point Record High In Latest Survey
TOPLINE Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by six points among likely voters in the latest survey that shows the Democratic candidate maintaining her lead after Tuesday’s debate—which most voters believe she won.
KEY FACTS
Harris leads Trump 51% to 45% in Morning Consult’s likely voter survey taken Sept. 13-15, a three-point increase since before the Sept. 10 debate and her widest lead yet in the group’s weekly surveys (Harris led 50% to 45% among likely voters in a one-day Morning Consult poll taken Sept. 11, immediately after the debate).
Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
Also after the debate, Harris led by a five-point margin—47% to 42%—in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters that closed Sept. 12, (in late August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 45%-41% advantage).
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that found Harris led Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still led him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
Trump led Harris 48%-47% among likely voters in a Times/Siena poll taken Sept. 3-6, equal to the former president’s one-point advantage six weeks ago—marking one of Trump’s first leads by a major pollster since Fox News found him up 50%-49% in early August (the Times/Siena survey had a margin of error of 2.8 points).
Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll, and Harris led Trump by two points in a Sept. 1-3 Economist/YouGov survey, consistent with results from a week earlier (she led Trump by three points in an Aug. 17-20 survey and two points in an Aug. 11-13 poll by the Economist and YouGov).
Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Aug. 29, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).
Harris had a 49%-47% edge in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters from Aug. 23-27, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error, as Trump and Harris split independents 45%-45% (the poll—taken Aug. 23-27—allowed respondents to pick third-party candidates, and in a head-to-head race, Harris’ lead shrinks to 49%-48%).
The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).
BIG NUMBER
1.7. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.7-point lead.
